Detecting, disrupting the terrorist planning cycle

  • Published
  • By Earl Gillis
  • 21st Space Wing Anti-Terrorism and Force Protection officer
Most people won't give the threat of terrorism a second thought. They feel safe and sound, far from the reach of al-Qaida and other terror brokers. As much as we'd like to believe we're insulated and immune from attack, we need to understand terrorists can hit any time and any place. Justifiably, we don't want our day-to-day lives taken up by the type of fear that engulfed our country after 9/11. It's extremely difficult to function under such long-term stresses. On the other hand, without realizing it, we put ourselves at risk when we become complacent - oblivious to indicators of trouble or lurking dangers. Nevertheless, situational awareness can help counter fear and permit us to carry on with our everyday lives - secure in the knowledge we've done what we can to detect, report and disrupt the terrorist attack cycle. 

Attacks designed to instill terror always appear to occur suddenly. The actual event, however, is the culmination of the six-stage attack cycle: target selection, planning, deployment, the attack, escape and exploitation. This article concentrates on the target selection and planning phases or...pre-operational surveillance and what we can do to disrupt it.

In the pre-operational surveillance stage, terrorists are no different from other criminals in preparing for an operation. The complexity and scope of the surveillance, however, vary with the scale of the operation and the end goal. Surveillance determines the target's patterns of behavior if it is an individual, or possible weaknesses and attack methods if the target is a building or facility. When the target is a person, terrorists will look for things such as the time the target leaves for work, what route is taken on certain days and determine if the target uses more than one vehicle. They also will take note of what type of security, if any, the target uses. For fixed targets, surveillance will record patterns and levels of security. Surveillance will focus on times when fewer guards are present or when the guards are about to change shifts, the existence of patrol dogs, cameras, delivery patterns, etc. In these cases, this information will be used to select the best time and location for the attack, and to determine what resources are needed to execute the attack.

Because part of pre-operational surveillance looks for "cookie-cutter" behavior, terrorists will conduct their surveillance multiple times. This is hazardous to the terrorists as they intensify their surveillance efforts, they risk being observed themselves and compromising the operation. 

So how do we disrupt pre-operational surveillance? Situational awareness, countersurveillance and swift reporting. 

Situational awareness -- is nothing more than a heightened state of vigilance amplified by the desire to survive and protect our loved ones. 

Countersurveillance -- the process of detecting and mitigating hostile surveillance during the target selection and planning stage -- the time the operation is most vulnerable to interdiction. Individuals must be familiar with their surroundings and watching for abnormal behavior, suspicious individuals, vehicles or objects that are out of place. Good countersurveillance is proactive; it provides a means to prevent an attack from happening. 

Swift reporting - The third element in disrupting pre-operational surveillance. The key is taking a moment to record and transfer as much information about your observations to aid law enforcement and intelligence sources in further investigating the matter. Information like when and where was activity observed, how many male/female individuals were observed, anything unique about their clothing, what were the individuals doing, vehicle color/type/license plate number, direction of travel are critical tid-bits to pass on to law enforcement officials. All this matters not if it doesn't reach law enforcement officials in a timely manner. Report suspicious activity promptly to Security Forces by dialing 556-4000. 

Detecting and disrupting the terrorist target selection and planning stage is a huge undertaking, involving the entire base populous, law enforcement and the intelligence community to recognize hostile surveillance before the next phase of the attack cycle begins. 

Bottom line...we all have responsibility as human sensors to detect and report suspicious activity. Remaining vigilant minimizes the chance of being caught totally off-guard. Your eyesight, hearing and most important, your situational awareness are important weapons in the war against terrorism. Stay Vigilant...unexpected should never mean unprepared!